27 September 2008

Krugman holding his nose on Paulson Plan

I'm not going to pretend to understand what he's talking about well enough to make any kind of commentary, but many others who know what they're talking about seem to share Krugman's sentiments. The extra links and bolding are mine of course.

Krugman: The fundamental problem in the financial system is too little capital; bizarrely, the Treasury chose not to address that problem directly, by (say) purchasing preferred shares in financial institutions. Instead, the plan is premised on the belief that toxic mortgage-related waste is underpriced, and that the Treasury can recapitalize banks on the cheap by fixing the markets’ error.

The Dodd-Frank changes make the plan less awful, mainly by creating an equity stake. Essentially, this makes it possible for the plan to do the right thing through the back door: use toxic-waste purchases to acquire equity, and hence inject capital after all. Also, the oversight means that Treasury can be prevented from making the plan a pure gift to financial evildoers. But it’s still not a good plan.

So is it better to have no plan than a deeply flawed plan? If it was the original Paulson plan, no plan is better. Dodd-Frank-Paulson may just cross the line — let’s see what details we have if and when agreement is reached.

If the plan looks not-awful enough, I’ll be pro. But I won’t be cheering — I’ll be holding my nose.

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