Practically, we have to pay healthcare workers a lot because we have to pay everyone a lot; in a rich country, wages for healthcare workers are high. And measuring healthcare productivity is really insanely difficult, which makes it very hard to figure out what's worth spending money on. As long as Americans don't want to sacrifice access to procedures--and they don't--there's just not much room for decreasing costs.
[. . .]
That doesn't bother me that much. The mindless trend extrapolation about how much we'll spend on health care in the future elides the point that we'll be much richer in the future; why shouldn't we spend all that extra income on healthcare?[. . .] When I look around at our incredibly bountiful economy, I don't see any obvious lack that we're creating by spending ever more of our income on leading longer, healthier lives.
13 April 2009
Megan McArdle on health care costs
Krugman: We need a credible Republican Party
So what’s the implication of the fact that Republicans are refusing to grow up, the fact that they are still behaving the same way they did when history seemed to be on their side? I’d say that it’s good for Democrats, at least in the short run — but it’s bad for the country.
12 April 2009
10 April 2009
09 April 2009
Smith's Theory of Moral Sentiments
The Sydney Morning Herald: Cut-throat behaviour makes empathy flow
07 April 2009
06 April 2009
Epic Missile Fail!
“It’s got to be embarrassing,” said Geoffrey E. Forden, a missile expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “I can imagine heads flying if the ‘Dear Leader’ finds out the satellite didn’t fly into orbit[.]”Joseph Cirincione: North Korean launch not cause for panic
Obama in Turkey
The Economist: Reaching Out to Turkey
NY Times: In Turkey, Obama Says U.S. ‘Never’ at War With Islam
Full video on CSPAN
This is worth watching.
05 April 2009
"How to Improve the Geithner Plan"
This seeems very sensible.
Readers Digest version:
First, to fix the price discovery problem we should ask the bank managers to lend their own money, alongside the FDIC and the Fed, for the acquisition of the toxic assets.
Second, to reduce the risk for the public, the banks should put their earnings as collateral for the loans. Also, compensations for employees in excess of a certain threshold should be put as collateral.
Hat Tip: Mark Thoma
This seems intuitively to be a bad idea
msnbc.com: Relaxed accounting rules will help banks
01 April 2009
Cool
Yeast cells feeding on the glucose in human blood might one day power implants such as pacemakers. A living source of power that is able to regenerate itself would eliminate the need for regular operations to replace batteries.
I guesss this should not surprise me, but wow
The Right has come unglued. There is no other explanation.
Has the Right come completely unglued?
The issue:
Spokane County became the launch pad last July for the nation’s strictest ban on dishwasher detergent made with phosphates, a measure aimed at reducing water pollution. The ban will be expanded statewide in July 2010, the same time similar laws take effect in several other states.The predicted public reaction:
At what point do the people tell the politicians to go to hell? At what point do they get off the couch, march down to their state legislator’s house, pull him outside, and beat him to a bloody pulp [. . .]?
Were I in Washington State, I’d be cleaning my gun right about now waiting to protect my property from the coming riots or the government apparatchiks coming to enforce nonsensical legislation.Yglesias makes a good comment:
But recall that it used to be considered beyond-the-pale for liberal bloggers to sometimes use naughty words. You see, though, that the minute conservatives lose power they go back to 1990s-style incitements to violence.
31 March 2009
Wow. A little late, don't you think?
The Washington Post: Detainee's Harsh Treatment Foiled No Plots
[N]ot a single significant plot was foiled as a result of Abu Zubaida's tortured confessions, according to former senior government officials who closely followed the interrogations. Nearly all of the leads attained through the harsh measures quickly evaporated, while most of the useful information from Abu Zubaida -- chiefly names of al-Qaeda members and associates -- was obtained before waterboarding was introduced, they said.Some commentary: Bush's Torture Rationale Debunked
[. . .]
President George W. Bush had publicly described him as "al-Qaeda's chief of operations," and other top officials called him a "trusted associate" of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and a major figure in the planning of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. None of that was accurate, the new evidence showed.Abu Zubaida was not even an official member of al-Qaeda, [. . .] and he ended up working directly with al-Qaeda only after Sept. 11 -- and that was because the United States stood ready to invade Afghanistan.
[. . .]
Others in the U.S. government, including CIA officials, fear the consequences of taking a man into court who was waterboarded on largely false assumptions, because of the prospect of interrogation methods being revealed in detail and because of the chance of an acquittal that might set a legal precedent.
[. . .]"He was the above-ground support," said one former Justice Department official closely involved in the early investigation of Abu Zubaida. "He was the guy keeping the safe house, and that's not someone who gets to know the details of the plans. To make him the mastermind of anything is ridiculous."
As weeks passed after the capture without significant new confessions, the Bush White House and some at the CIA became convinced that tougher measures had to be tried.
[. . .]"They couldn't stand the idea that there wasn't anything new," the official said. "They'd say, 'You aren't working hard enough.' There was both a disbelief in what he was saying and also a desire for retribution -- a feeling that 'He's going to talk, and if he doesn't talk, we'll do whatever.' "
The application of techniques such as waterboarding [. . .] prompted a sudden torrent of names and facts. Abu Zubaida began unspooling the details of various al-Qaeda plots, including plans to unleash weapons of mass destruction.
Abu Zubaida's revelations triggered a series of alerts and sent hundreds of CIA and FBI investigators scurrying in pursuit of phantoms. The interrogations led directly to the arrest of Jose Padilla, the man Abu Zubaida identified as heading an effort to explode a radiological "dirty bomb" in an American city. Padilla was held in a naval brig for 3 1/2 years on the allegation but was never charged in any such plot.
[. . .]
"We spent millions of dollars chasing false alarms," one former intelligence official said.
Despite the poor results, Bush White House officials and CIA leaders continued to insist that the harsh measures [. . .] produced useful intelligence that disrupted terrorist plots and saved American lives.
Hat Tip: Brad DeLong
Why can't we visualize more than 3 Dimensions?
Glenn Beck is Criminally Insane and an Opportunist, Part III
He says that America is “on the road to socialism” and that “God and religion are under attack in the U.S.” He recently wondered aloud whether FEMA was setting up concentration camps, calling it a rumor that he was unable to debunk.You can say that, but the problem is that people do. Why say it then?
“I’m a rodeo clown,” he said in an interview, adding with a coy smile, “It takes great skill.” And like a rodeo clown, Mr. Beck incites critics to attack by dancing in front of them.
. . .
He added later: “I say on the air all time, ‘if you take what I say as gospel, you’re an idiot.’ ”
30 March 2009
29 March 2009
28 March 2009
23 March 2009
Obama on Jay Leno
22 March 2009
21 March 2009
War Crimes in Gaza
This is pretty messed up. Some excerpts:
"Shoot and don't worry about the consequences" was the message from commanders, said Marmor. Describing the behaviour of a lieutenant-colonel who briefed the troops, Marmor added: "His whole demeanour was extremely gung-ho. This is very, very different from my usual experience. I have been doing reserve duty for 12 years, and it was always an issue how to avoid causing civilian injuries. He said that in this operation, we are not taking any chances. Morality aside, we have to do our job. We will cry about it later."And
An investigation by reporter Uri Blau, published on Friday in Haaretz, disclosed how Israeli soldiers were ordering T-shirts to mark the end of operations, featuring grotesque images including dead babies, mothers weeping by their children's graves, a gun aimed at a child and bombed-out mosques.Another T-shirt designed for infantry snipers bears the inscription "Better use Durex" next to a picture of a dead Palestinian baby, with his weeping mother and a teddy bear beside him. A shirt designed for the Givati Brigade's Shaked battalion depicts a pregnant Palestinian woman with a bull's-eye superimposed on her belly, with the slogan, in English, "1 shot, 2 kills".
20 March 2009
DeLong for Wall Street Compensation Reform and Foreign Affairs on Japan's Lost Decade
[P]unitive taxes on excessive immediate cash payouts paid by TARP and other government financial commitments are, I believe, completely appropriate. But thou shalt not bind the mouths of the kine that tread the corn: traders and financial executives who are willing to work very hard for what are now government-owned enterprises should be offered the carrot of long-term restricted equity stakes: that if they do their jobs well and if the government makes a healthy return because of their skill, forethought, and diligence, they should make healthy returns as well.And Foreign Affairs (subscription required I believe, but any library should have access).Punitive taxes on compensation that takes the form of long-term restricted equity stakes is a dangerous and destructive move. If the compensation bill that emerges from the conference committee does not allow TARP-receiving companies to offer such SVCSs, then Obama should veto it.
And if the traders of Wall Street then quit en masse? If they say that they are going to "Go Galt" if they don't get their traders' options to take the money upfront after assuring us shareholders that they have made us a lot of money, that their positions and strategies are sound, and that they have prudently managed the risks? Well, then that tells us something about what they really think the true value of their work product has been.
18 March 2009
Cool debate at The Economist and Glen Beck is Criminally Insane, Part II
Also, further evidence by way of Soelberg that Glen Beck is a nut job.
13 March 2009
Relevant Links:
John M Berry: If Tax Cut Lapsing is Class Warfare, Let's Fight.
Delong: Republican Chair Michael Steele is Pro-Choice
The Economist: Pursued by Obamabears
08 March 2009
07 March 2009
This is pretty messed up . . .
A nine-year-old girl is sexually abused by her stepfather over three years and then raped. She becomes pregnant with twins and a doctor performs an abortion:
“If the pregnancy had continued, the damage would have been worse, being a high risk pregnancy. The risk would have been of death or at the very least that she would never have been able to become pregnant again.”
The Catholic authorities immediately threaten to charge the girl's mother with homicide and excommunicate her. In fact, the archbishop declares her automatically excommunicated.
04 March 2009
02 March 2009
Is Microsoft cool again?
more
26 February 2009
Interesting Links
Calvin and Hobbes Grown Up
Forests in the Sky
Mark Thoma: The Long and Short of the US Economy
Economists in support of the Employee Free Choice Act (There are some big names here. I'll have to look at this.)
Bad Behavior? Bad Smell? We react the same.
Health Care on the Front Burner
23 February 2009
22 February 2009
Glenn Beck is criminally insane
Shortly after the election, I went with a friend to a sporting goods store to get a holster for his handgun (a right which I respect even though I choose not to exercise it for practical reasons – BYU doesn't allow it and my life is already accident prone without lethal force to back that up).
Anyway, while he was picking one out, I made small talk with the guy at the gun counter. He told me that they couldn't keep ammo and barrels of black powder in stock because people are hoarding it in case they have to rebel against the Obama administration's imagined anti-gun policies (he didn't say it that bluntly, but that was the idea).
Watch the video for yourself. These supposedly serious individuals seem to relish the idea of a militia movement rebelling against the Federal Government. The Republican Party needs to reform and it needs to do it quickly – this country needs responsible conservatives (ie actual conservatives, not rabid rural white Nationalists and the media who pander to them). The sooner these people can be made politically irrelevant the better.
Update: If this doesn't remove any doubt that serving in the military doesn't mean you deserve to be taken seriously regarding national security affairs, I don't know what will.
21 February 2009
Greenspan backs bank nationalization
You gotta give Alan Greenspan credit (besides being very smart). He sure has no problem admitting he's wrong and adjusting to the new situation. There aren't many people in his position (or anywhere) who would do the same.
16 February 2009
15 February 2009
14 February 2009
12 February 2009
New Scientist: Studies suggest religious belief is innate
Happy Birthday Darwin (and Lincoln)
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11 February 2009
10 February 2009
The Prescription Drug and Medical Devices Industries are Pure Evil
WASHINGTON -- The drug and medical-device industries are mobilizing to gut a provision in the stimulus bill that would spend $1.1 billion on research comparing medical treatments, portraying it as the first step to government rationing…
The House version of the stimulus package sent shudders through the drug and medical-device industry. In a staff report describing the bill, the House said treatments found to be less effective and in some cases more expensive "will no longer be prescribed."…
Mr. Obama supported research into comparative effectiveness during his campaign. Administration officials and leading Democrats in Congress say the idea will help government programs direct their dollars to treatments that are worth the money…
Companies "want to control the data, how it is reviewed, evaluated, and whether the public and government find out about it and use it," said Harry Selker, a Tufts University professor who directs its clinical-research program.
That also worries Jerry Avorn of Harvard Medical School, a frequent drug-industry critic. Comparative research "has the potential to tell us which drugs and treatments are safe, and which ones work," he said. "This is not information that the private sector will generate on its own, or that the industry wants to share."
Michael Cannon of the libertarian Cato Institute said comparative effectiveness research "isn't going to do any good because the industry will defund it as soon as it presents a threat."
When the government's Agency for Health Research Quality suggested in 1995 that there were too many unnecessary back surgeries, doctors and industry groups attacked the conclusion. Mr. Cannon noted that Congress at the time slashed the agency's budget and stripped its authority to make medicare-payment recommendations.
09 February 2009
08 February 2009
04 February 2009
A form of my Abbott and Costello law proposed in Colorado
Ok, so they didn't get the idea from me (and now that I look, I haven't posted about it eaither), but I did think of it too. I'd have to read the actual language in the bill to see how close it is, but this seems to be the gist. In particular, I'd like to see how "couple" is defined. I wouldn't have used that word. I like "companionship"or "partnership" or something that doesn't imply any kind of sexual activity. Anyway, it'll be interesting to see what happens.
Hat Tip: Andrew Sullivan
03 February 2009
Thank goodness BYU protects me from this . . .
Quote: "If I had to guess, I'd say the average YouTube user was a 14 year old girl with Down's syndrome."
29 January 2009
I can't believe how accurate this is . . .
26 January 2009
25 January 2009
Keep track of Obama's campaign promises
23 January 2009
Relevant and interesting links:
Krugman: Spending in Wartime
CNN: $1000 Homes
Walter Williams (Weird and kooky, but interesting guy, by the way): A Minority View
Times Online: Climate calculating supercomputer has a huge carbon footprint
The Raw Story: UN may prosecute Bush administration (Which is why the US should do it first…)
Freakanomics: Commercials help you enjoy television more?
21 January 2009
Elders Uchdorf and Ballard on the inauguration
I can't help but love how German the Uchtdorfs are (I don't really know how to explain it . . . or more like emotion in general).
At Tuesday's inauguration, the Uchtdorfs found themselves seated next to an African-American couple. "When the oath was taken, this lady next to her (Sister Uchtdorf) just embraced her and gave her a kiss with tears running down," said President Uchtdorf, adding that the emotions he sensed over the two days were not simply the result of the massive numbers witnessing nor the racially historic moment, but rather a sense of graciousness displayed by a free democracy.Anyway, I recommend the article.
Krugman the Buzz Killer
Barack Obama, 2009:
What is required of us now is a new era of responsibility - a recognition, on the part of every American, that we have duties to ourselves, our nation, and the world, duties that we do not grudgingly accept but rather seize gladly, firm in the knowledge that there is nothing so satisfying to the spirit, so defining of our character, than giving our all to a difficult task.
George W. Bush, 2000:
A hundred years from now, this must not be remembered as an age rich in possessions and poor in ideals.
Instead, we must usher in an era of responsibility.
Bill Clinton, 1993:
We must do what America does best: offer more opportunity to all and demand responsibility from all.
It is time to break the bad habit of expecting something for nothing, from our government or from each other. Let us all take more responsibility, not only for ourselves and our families but for our communities and our country.
Also:
Give me some men who are half-hearted men . . .
The Vanishing muddle
20 January 2009
16 January 2009
13 January 2009
Small-Government Egalitarianism
12 January 2009
Stimulus: tax cuts or government spending?
I do understand Mankiw's point that spending should meet a cost/benefit analysis. Our national infrustructure could use some work . . . smart electric grid and bullet train system anyone? How about health care reform?
28 December 2008
Megan McArdle: The finanical sector is not the automobile industry
There are some really good points here. Among them:
[F]inancial executives have been fired in large numbers and taking pay cuts that reduced their income to a fraction of what was expected six months ago. Auto workers have not. Financial firms are in the process of laying off hundreds of thousands of their best paid workers (50,000 at Citibank alone); auto firms are not. …
[V]arious investment banking groups that specialized in equity and corporate bonds and wouldn't have known a CDO if it bit them on the ass; corporate and muni bond traders; cap markets guys, and so forth. All their markets dried up because of a credit crisis that they cannot even arguably be credited with creating. It's no more fair that they have to sell their house … and try to figure out what the hell they're qualified for, than that autoworkers have to. Less, maybe, because the autoworkers have had a lot of warning that their companies are on shaky ground … Apparently the message we want to send is "Don't go look for a high-paying job; get a picturesque one." …
No one in the financial industry declared that their salaries and perks weren't on the table until some vague and unspecified date in the future, as the UAW has. Actually, from what I understand, the CEO of Lehman tried to, and he was rightly told to go piss up a rope. …
The financial industry was bloated, the salaries out-of-whack with any possible real economic value they could be argued to have provided to anyone, and that will have to change--but we don't need the government to ensure that, because the industry is contracting rapidly, and the worst-hit parts are exactly the places that were most out of line with economic reality. …
And I think that most of the people who Hilzoy thinks of as picking on the auto workers would be willing to accept a deal in which the Big Three got some funds in order to put its balance sheet back together, then started firing people at will until they were small enough to make a profit again.
I've thought a lot about things like this, especially the loss of low-skill, relatively high paying jobs. On the one hand, I like the kind of social order where someone can go get a goodish job right out of high school and raise a family on that (even though I really don't understand those kinds of people at all . . . I was never raised with the idea that not going to college was even an option, let alone a good idea). There's a kind of inherent equality in such a society; even the little guy without great educational opportunities can live comfortably and securely in his place (I don't mean that as snobbily as it sounds. My future social standing is not in any way set in stone.).
On the other hand, I don't see any moral imperative to expend resources to preserve such industries that are not self-sustaining, and certainly not those that have wastefully burned through resources at the rate the American auto industry has. The basic arguments for free markets in most cases are convincing; if someone can manufacture cars more cheaply (Japanese firms), they should. If a for-profit enterprise is unprofitable, it should not exist (and it would be horribly inefficient to turn the auto industry into an insiders-only welfare program).
As for the autoworkers themselves, I have no problem with them being generously helped directly through programs to help them move, obtain training, keep health care benefits, and so forth. But if your specific employment does not add value at the margins, you should be fired and get different employment.
It really isn't very complicated.
22 December 2008
17 December 2008
16 December 2008
Recipient of BYU honorary doctorate admits to war crimes on TV . . .
Commentary:
The Daily Dish, also here
The Raw Story
Ross Douthat takes a less outraged stance that I can sympathize with. He still accepts the basic facts (since they are basically indisputable).
15 December 2008
If the world were just, would senior Bush people be charged as war criminals?
The actual senate report is also worth reading (only 20ish pages).Yesterday's bipartisan Senate report on the abuse of detainees in U.S. custody at Guantanamo, Abu Ghraib and elsewhere doesn't just lay out a clear line of responsibility starting with President Bush, it also exposes the administration's repeated explanation for what happened as a pack of lies.
"The abuse of detainees in U.S. custody cannot simply be attributed to the actions of 'a few bad apples' acting on their own," the report finds. "The fact is that senior officials in the United States government solicited information on how to use aggressive techniques, redefined the law to create the appearance of their legality, and authorized their use against detainees. . .
12 December 2008
Joe Stiglitz: No Bailout for Auto Industry
So it's basically unanimous among people who know what they are talking about and who don't have a vested interest in the US auto industry. Businesses that don't produce items that people want to buy or trust for quality should not be rewarded with taxpayer money.
09 December 2008
Wow, sucks to be Laos . . .
How about $15 billion to bailout Laos since . . . you know . . . this problem is all our fault?
05 December 2008
03 December 2008
Santa's Gmail inbox
Full PostWeird shiz in Thailand.
By most narratives, the road to democracy from feudalism begins with economic liberalization, which fosters a powerful bourgeoisie that eventually overthrows the aristocracy/nobility (violently in America's case, or gradually in places like Great Britain). Think about the movie Amazing Grace when Wilberforce plays poker with an aristocratic fellow member of the House of Commons. The Noble raises the stakes and someone reminds him, "Your Grace, you know these merchant boys are richer than we are."
This narrative isn't playing out in Thailand. The bourgeoisie is now rioting in favor of anti-democratic reforms to the government. Looks like the mainstream narrative is wrong, or at least misinterpreted.
I tend to think it's partially wrong at least. The United States Constitution, for example, is not nearly as democratic as people think. Last summer, my personal project was to read James Madison's notes of the Federal Convention. And really, the vast majority of the founding fathers were not democrats (small "d"). Except with James Wilson and maybe a couple of others, a general distrust of the common people prevailed.
The United States Senate was put originally in the hands of the state legislatures for that reason (and there were even proposals to have them specifically elected by the economic elites). And in all the debates about "minority rights" they aren't talking about black people (obviously) or religious minorities for the most part. They're talking about rich people – they were afraid the people would try to confiscate their wealth.
It's possible that Thailand moved too quickly to a modern-style popularly elected government and now the middle class is up in arms, just as they may have been here had such reforms been put in place in the very beginning before loyalty to our constitutional government became a cultural and (almost?) religious necessity for anyone who wants to be accepted in polite company. Could a similar thing happen in China (which would shake most of the reason American foreign policy justifies such close economic and diplomatic ties with a communist country). Should we care? Is there any reason to think a free market (which is mostly where we get our benefit from other people's democracies I think) can't function in a partially non democratic regime? Anyway, it's interesting to think about.
01 December 2008
This is pretty messed up . . .
Here's the link.
Update: here too.





